Wednesday, August 03, 2016

Story of My Life

Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping determinism, is the inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it. It is a multifaceted phenomenon that can affect different stages of designs, processes, contexts, and situations. Hindsight bias may cause memory distortion, where the recollection and reconstruction of content can lead to false theoretical outcomes.
 I have had creeping determinism retrospectively affect my understanding of events in the past.

- Exams: only if i had started earlier
- Jobs: knew this was gonna happen
- Relationships: only if i had said that

Besides enjoying the recollection of a moment, this makes me hate meself for various reasons over various events. It has made me lose subjectivity for the past, in light of the new objective information which I didn't have back then. The bias most often rears in situations where we are left unhappy/violated/failed, because we feel a guilt for what is not right in our life, so the mind goes back to the time right before, and tries to figure how it could've led to it, then deduces the "knew it all along", and feels bad for its organism. The winners never look back like this.

It is, however, difficult to act despite having all the information about a forthcoming event. Human-human dynamics is simpler, but human-social or social-social dynamics is largely unpredictable (yet). To say "oh I should've seen that he was gonna try stab me" is genuine, but to say "oh I should've seen the mob taking over" is bogus.

No comments: